| Rosstradamus AFC South Preview | ||||
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Below are the predictions of Rosstradamus, great-great grandson of Nostradamus. As a tribute to the former seer, each team is given a fitting quote from his quatrains. Enjoy, and remember…the Crystal Ball never lies. AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West Houston Texans (11-5): A doubtful one will not come far from the realm; the greater part will want to uphold him.
Here we go again. Let the Texans hype begin! But this time there’s a real reason to believe in them…really, there is!
Offense: Can Arian Foster even approach his numbers from 2010? If he doesn’t can the team still succeed offensively?
Crystal Ball Says: No, Foster isn’t going to repeat what he did last season, but that doesn’t mean he won’t still be a deadly weapon. History shows that backs that do what Foster did in 2010—and there aren’t a lot of them—don’t repeat the feat often, let alone the following season. So, instead of the 2,200 total yards and 18 touchdowns he had in 2010, how about 1,800 total yards and 13 touchdowns in 2011? Yeah, that’s still pretty damn solid and very attainable. Yeah, he tweaked a hamstring, but I have to say—the team wouldn’t lose much if either Ben Tate or Derrick Ward has to fill in. The offense in Houston has never been the issue. Andre Johnson is All World, Matt Schaub has thrown for well over 4,000 yards each of the past 2 seasons, and Owen Daniels is healthy again at tight end. There are weapons galore. The offensive line is solid if not spectacular, led by left tackle Duane Brown and left guard Wade Smith. Both men are athletic and intelligent players, which is exactly what the zone blocking scheme of Gary Kubiak demands. There are several reasons for Foster’s amazing season a year ago; these two linemen deserve credit as much as anyone…and should have gotten some pretty nice watches from Foster for their way paving.
Defense: Is Wade Phillips the savior in Houston?
Crystal Ball Says: Well, I don’t know about savior, but the man can coach up some defense. Phillips left Dallas, let’s face it, in total disgrace. His team quit on him, which shows their mettle more than it does that of Phillips’ as far as I’m concerned, and he was fired in the middle of the season. Enter the Texans and their need for someone with a mind for defense. I believe this is a perfect fit. There are talented players on this side of the ball, and they fit the new scheme, no matter what the so-called experts says. Rookie J.J. Watt is the perfect man to lead the D-line for Phillips. Watt will never stop; his motor is limitless. The team suffered a bunch of injuries last season, but the linebacking corps is back, albeit in a different alignment. Mario Williams will be Phillips’ Houston version of DeMarcus Ware—the outside quarterback assassin. Connor Barwin will play the other outside spot, returning from an ankle injury that kept him out virtually all of 2010. Barwin, like Watt and most of the Texan front 7, plays with relentless energy. Inside, Brian Cushing will try to rebound from a 2010 season that was, for many reasons, disappointing. He knows his position will be on the inside after he was shuffled a bit in 2010, and the stability should help him. Also back after an injury in 2010 is DeMeco Ryans. His Achilles is fully healed and you better believe Ryans is ready to rack up some major tackles in 2011. I really like this linebacking group and you can bank on Phillips using this versatile bunch to scare the hell out of opposing offenses. But the real issue for the Texans has always been the secondary. Not any longer. They finally did something about it, importing free agents Danieal Manning and Jonathan Joseph. Joseph is a terrific corner, with a well-rounded game. He can cover in man and zone. He can tackle, support the run, and has sound instincts. Boy did this team need a corner like Joseph. Manning will bring even more to the table from his free safety spot, especially after he’s coached up by Phillips. Phillips and Joseph will both be of great help to second-year corner Kareem Jackson who could not have had a worse rookie campaign. But the talent is there; now it’s up to Phillips to mine it.
Bottom Line: I think with the free agent acquisitions, the hiring of Phillips, and the return to health of several key defensive players, this team is just better than Indianapolis now that they have a defense. They’ll win the division and won’t lose until they have to take their show on the road.
Indianapolis Colts (9-7): The great ones are not to be allowed deliverance at all: They are restored by the enemies at the proper time.
The window for this bunch is closing, and quickly. Peyton Manning’s health is in question; the first time he’s shown any sign of age since he’s entered the league.
Offense: Will Manning be under center in week 1, and what happens if he misses some games? Will the Colts ever be able to run the ball?
Crystal Ball Says: I say he will be, but I base that on nothing other than his past history. Medically, it’s still up in the air. Not even Manning knows if he’ll be cleared to play. But I’ll say this: if he is cleared to play, he’ll play regardless of how much pain he’s dealing with. We know what the man is going to produce: 30+ touchdowns and 4,200+ yards passing if he plays. But if he doesn’t…if he misses even 1 or 2 games, this is a .500 team waiting to happen. Manning clearly tried to do too much at times last season, though who could blame him with the impotence shown by the running game. The Colts haven’t run the ball effectively in years. They finished 29th in rushing offense in 2010, 32nd in 2009, and 31st in 2008. How they wish for the “glory” days of 2007, when they finished a robust 17th in rushing offense. Those were the good ol’ days, but they’re not coming back anytime soon. Joseph Addai is average at best, and that’s when he’s healthy. Donald Brown has had his chances…and failed to deliver. Rookie Delone Carter may be the best back on the roster and is most certainly going to be used in goal line situations if the team wants to gain a pivotal yard on the ground. Look, we know that this team can do and what it can’t do offensively. Nothing about that is going to change. Reggie Wayne might be slowing down a bit, but Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie will pick up the slack there. Dallas Clark is going to get his looks…and the team will be ineffective running the ball. Yes, they upgraded the offensive line with Anthony Castonzo and Ben Ijalana. Yes, there’s a bit more depth along the line than we’ve seen in a while, and that’s good. But you can’t run the ball unless you’re devoted to it, and this team is simply not devoted to it. Manning has indeed been the man…but perhaps they’ve become addicted to relying too much on him.
Defense: Can anyone step up other than Freeney and Mathis? Will the team stop the run for once?
Crystal Ball Says: It’s unlikely. Mathis had 11 sacks in 2010 and Freeney 10. The rest of the team had a whopping 9. That’s pretty weak. Jerry Hughes has done nothing thus far. Gary Brackett is a nice player at middle linebacker, but he’s always hurt and isn’t getting any younger. Pat Angerer showed signs of becoming his replacement, but he needs to do it for more than 5 or 6 games in 2011. Fili Moala flashes brilliance at times, but looks distracted just as often. Again—if these go-to players are so good, how come the Colts finished 29th in run defense last season? Could it be because their star players excel at one thing at the expense of another? They have addressed this inability to stop the run by importing guys like Jamaal Anderson and drafting Drake Nevis, but banking on them to reverse the team’s defensive fortunes seems a bit sketchy. Don’t misunderstand: there are steady players on this unit, specifically free safety Antoine Bethea, who is probably their best all-around defensive player. But there just aren’t enough players who impact consistently enough. Sure, Freeney will get a sack here and there…but where is he the other 50 snaps?
Bottom Line: I was reluctant to give this team 10 wins, but Manning’s skill and ability to play all 16 games throughout his career has me giving him the benefit of the doubt. Tennessee Titans (8-8): A slight flame comes out of the emptiness and makes successful that which should not be believed in vain.
No more Jeff Fisher. No more Vince Young. Enter Mike Munchak and Matt Hasselbeck. I get the feeling that Muchak’s first season is going to be like that of a substitute teacher. The kids are going to be so happy the regular teacher isn’t there, and they’re going to try to get away with as much as possible.
Offense: Is Matt Hasselbeck going to be able to succeed on his new team, or is he just a stop-gap/mentor for Jake Locker? Will Chris Johnson suffer any ill effects from his hold out? Will Kenny Britt ever maximize his talent?
Crystal Ball Says: I get that Hasselbeck gets along well with offensive coordinator Chris Palmer, but come on. The former Seahawk never stays healthy, he’s 35, and hasn’t had a solid season since 2007. The team hopes Hasselbeck can keep them competitive until Jake Locker is ready. I say he’s ready now, or at least a better option than a washed up Hasselbeck. I know the team wants to bring Locker along slowly, but the kid has the mental makeup to take some knocks and succeed afterward. If I was a Titans fan, I’d rather let the kid learn on the job and see what we have in him than waste a season with a retread and perhaps then find out the kid isn’t good enough. One guy we all know is plenty good enough is Chris Johnson. CJ2K will play in week one despite missing virtually all the preseason in a contract dispute. But he’s getting paid now, and will be expected to carry this offense once again. He will, to the tune of 1,600+ total yards. There’s no reason to expect anything else; it’s not like he was downing Fat Burgers during his holdout. That’s something Kenny Britt would do, though. He’s got a bad hamstring from what I’d guess is not being in proper shape. He gets arrested a few times, and just seems to not get it. This is your team’s star receiver? Perhaps Britt understands how lucky he was to have avoided suspension for his latest transgressions and will now straighten up…but I wouldn’t count on it. The guy has enough talent to be a top-5 receiver, but he never will be. When he’s 50, he’ll realize what he squandered. Nate Washington and Damian Williams will be the number 2 and 3 receivers, with Lavelle Hawkins, Justin Gage, and Marc Mariani chipping in with random contributions as well. Jared Cook is ready to become the next big thing among athletic tight ends, assuming Hasselbeck can get him the ball. The offensive line, led by left tackle Michael Roos, is above average, which is all Johnson needs. However, it might not be enough to keep Hasselbeck from the trainer’s table.
Defense: Can the Titans improve upon their 29th-ranked pass defense (yards allowed) while maintaining their top-10 status in sacks?
Crystal Ball Says: I sort of like this defense. They’re deep and have several young, versatile players who will fit well into new defensive coordinator Jerry Gray’s system.
Up front they’ll need Derrick Morgan to return from arthroscopic knee surgery; it was the same knee that cost him the bulk of his rookie season. Morgan is already familiar with Gray’s defensive set-up, having played in a similar scheme in college, so he’ll be good to go as soon as he’s able to return. Morgan played well last season before the injury. Once he’s regained his game form, he’ll be a menace from all over the defensive line. Jason Jones will start at end on the right side, but don’t expect him to stay there. His strength is his ability to play all over the place, so expect Gray to utilize his versatility. William Hayes brings size and a nasty demeanor to the line, while Shaun Smith is a nearly immovable force against the run. Karl Klug will help Smith on the inside, but the list doesn’t end with the starters. Sen’Derrick Marks hasn’t played up to expectations and is coming off shoulder surgery. The hope is his new defensive line coach, Tracy Rocker, will be able to get the most out of him; Rocker coached Marks when the latter was still at Auburn. Dave Ball adds depth, and has added some weight. He had 7.5 sacks last season despite missing 5 games. Depth along the line is essential, and the Titans have it. At linebacker, Tennessee imported Barrett Ruud to replace Stephen Tulloch at middle linebacker. Ruud is solid in pass coverage, but backup (for now) Colin McCarthy is the long-term solution and should see plenty of action, especially if/when the Titans are out of the playoff chase. On the outside, versatile rookie Akeem Ayers will wreak havoc with his athleticism and versatility…but he’ll also frustrate by being caught out of position and taking plays off. He is the definition of enigmatic. Will Witherspoon will play opposite Ayers and hopefully some of the veteran’s steadiness will rub off on the rookie. Gerald McRath will supply depth as the nickel linebacker, and could push Witherspoon for the starting spot. In the secondary, Tennessee boasts three quality corners in Cortland Finnegan, Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty. Finnegan will start on one side and although McCourty is listed as the starter now, I believe Verner is the better player. He filled in quite admirably last season when McCourty was injured. Whoever gets the starting nod, the third corner will provide much needed cover. It’s a nice dilemma to have. Safeties Chris Hope and Michael Griffin need to improve in 2011. Griffin, despite making the Pro Bowl because of his numerous tackles (107) still misses far too many and needs to be in better shape; his play dropped off dramatically toward the end of the season. Hope simply needs to make more plays, which shouldn’t be difficult considering he had just one interception and one forced fumble in 2010. His play might improve if the coaching staff tweaks his role a bit and takes away some of his responsibilities in pass coverage. Bottom Line: This team intrigues me. I’d pick them as a surprise playoff team if I had any faith in Matt Hasselbeck. But I don’t, and I won’t. I’d love to see Jake Locker in there and before too long, the entire Titan team will also. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10): Through conflict a King will abandon his realm: The greatest chief will fail in time of need.
Yet another coach who is fortunate to have a job, Jack Del Rio, returns for one more shot at making the playoffs. But this team will once again frustrate with its inconsistency; at times they look like the class of the division, at others, like a 3-win team.
Offense: Is Maurice Jones-Drew actually healthy? What exactly is going on with the quarterback position? Do the Jags have enough at receiver for either quarterback?
Crystal Ball Says: It actually appears that MJD is healthy…for now. Doctors actually banned him from running at all for 7 months following his surgery. That was scary news for a team who relies so much on that guy to generate their offense. But those 7 months are up and Jones-Drew looks pretty much like his old self: elusive, cutting on a dime, and nearly impossible to bring down. For however long it lasts, the team will ride it. Rashad Jennings was more than capable of spelling MJD, but he’s lost for the season after suffering a knee injury during preseason. That leaves unproven Deji Karim as MJD’s cover, for now. One would think Jacksonville would scour the waiver wire for some experience in the backfield. Regardless, new starting quarterback Luke McCown will be happy to have Jones-Drew healthy. The team drafted Blaine Gabbert to replace Garrard, so I’m not shocked they released the veteran, but they are convinced Gabbert isn’t ready, so they have decided McCown will keep the spot warm for him. Gabbert did absolutely nothing to take the job from the incumbent or McCown, despite the fact that everyone involved with the franchise wanted him to. In fact, Gabbert is closer to being the third quarterback than he is the first. Nevertheless, chances are the rookie will get a chance to play at some point. But to whom will he be throwing? Mike Thomas is going to be the number one receiver, but after him it’s a crapshoot. Jason Hill is slated to start, but the 49er castoff really hasn’t done much in the preseason. After him it’s Jarrett Dillard or Kaseem Osgood, with Mount Union rookie Cecil Shorts not quite ready for prime time. There’s really not a lot there, which is perhaps why Garrard is always so quick to look for tight end Marcedes Lewis. He and Garrard connected for 10 touchdowns last season.
Defense: Jack Del Rio will no longer be calling plays for the defense, but will defensive coordinator Mel Tucker be able to generate anything with the talent he has?
Crystal Ball Says: If this team is going to have a decent defensive season, they need to make things happen instead of reacting to the offense. That starts up front with their two best players, Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton. The interior linemen form a pretty dynamic duo, and those who scoffed at the Jags’ selection of Alualu in last year’s draft have been silenced. The kid played well, and played in every game for the Jags in his rookie season. Knighton only needs to keep his weight in check to be one of the better interior linemen in the AFC. Outside on the line, Aaron Kampman will be used as a rotational player. He’s simply not able to do anything beyond that; he gets hurt all the time. Matt Roth isn’t going to bring much of a pass rush, and that’s what this team needs. In 2010, they had just 26 sacks. That was 31st in the league, and honestly, I don’t see where the improvement is coming from. They brought in Paul Posluszny and Clint Session at linebacker. Yeah, they’re nice players who can tackle and provide some leadership…and Daryl Smith is an underappreciated tackle machine, but where’s the pressure on the quarterback coming from? I don’t see it. And that means more pressure on corners Derek Cox and Rashean Mathis, neither of whom could cover me, let alone an NFL receiver. Courtney Greene will play strong safety and Dawan Landry, brought in from Baltimore, will play free safety. They’re good, but not good enough to make up for the glaring deficiency at the corners. If you have poor corners, you’d think it’d be a priority to improve in that area. The Jags have not done that. Bottom Line: This team isn’t making the playoffs and Del Rio will finally be shown the door. They seem to half-ass everything; they draft a quarterback, but refuse to play him. They know their defense needs an upgrade, but they only upgrade part of what they need. They’re the Indiana Pacers of the NFL—never bad enough to get the 1st pick, and never good enough to win a title. 
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