The Leading Authority of the NFL Draft

Let’s face one big reality before we move forward. Every player who is considered a top-10 pick coming out of college brings with them some lofty expectations that are not always met. Of course one NFL team might not like Player A as much as Player B, but regardless of how far they drop, any team will jump at the chance to get a player that they consider a lock at the next level. If the Chargers would have passed on Ryan Leaf, there is no doubt that those next in line—the Cardinals, Raiders and Bears—would have had to entertain the idea of taking the disaster-in-waiting from Washington State.

Every draft is unique in its identity. Some are quarterback heavy or deep at cornerback, but this year’s class has two big men, Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh and Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy, vying for the honor of becoming the number one overall pick.

Any time my mind starts to wonder off like this, it means we are going Inside the Numbers. Today’s Inside the Numbers is about breaking down two evenly matched players from the same position, and taking a look at how NFL careers pan out when players are among the top three selections of the NFL draft.

The dynamic duo of Ndamulong Suh and Gerald McCoy has talent evaluators scratching their heads over who should be taken first. As we will learn, lighting doesn’t often strike twice…especially when it comes to two players battling it out for the draft’s top slot.

In April of 1998, Tennessee’s Peyton Manning and Washington State’s Ryan Leaf were the two players battling it out to become the overall number one selection. I could stop right there because we all know how this story ends. Peyton Manning has become the face of the most popular sport in America, selling us everything from televisions to sport drinks and his dedication to detail and fine tuning of his on-the-field craft have made him one for the ages. Manning has as many Most Valuable Player Awards during his career as Leaf played seasons in the NFL, which is four.

Sadly enough, Ryan Leaf’s career reminds me of Roy Munson’s. You will remember Munson as the character played by Woody Harrelson in the underrated 1996 movie Kingpin. The difference is we never saw a rebirth from Leaf like we did with Roy Munson and his bowling career. Considered one of the biggest busts of all time, Leaf would have been taken third had he not been taken second and so on and so on. It wasn’t like the Chargers—or the Colts for that matter—didn’t do their homework on Leaf.

One year later, three teams spent countless hours and money determining exactly which signal caller would be the face of their franchise for the next decade. Three was the magic number with the Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals as they participated in an arms race for Kentucky’s Tim Couch, Syracuse’s Donovan McNabb and Oregon’s Akili Smith. Couch had a lot to handle and had his moments, leading Cleveland to a playoff appearance. However, injuries and a confidence mangled by the helpless Browns left little chance for Couch to succeed at the NFL level.

Plagued and still mocked today by scoring a nine on his Wonderlic test, Akili Smith would only start 17 games from 1999-2002, eventually getting released. Smith might not have been able to wrap his head around the complexities of the NFL game and a long hold-out during his rookie season certainly didn’t help 1999’s third overall choice.

Sandwiched between Couch and Smith was the second overall pick, Donovan McNabb. Since that day in New York when Philly fans voiced their displeasure of the Eagles taking McNabb over Texas running back Ricky Williams, the relationship between Philly and its QB has never been a cozy one. But throughout all the turmoil that seems to follow McNabb, he has played to a level few of his contemporaries can match. No, he doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring but like John Elway before he won his, I’m not sure if he ever had the weapons. Remember, Elway didn’t win it all until Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe and Rod Smith were in house. It makes you wonder what would have happened had McNabb had more Terrell Owens-type players and less Reggie Browns and Freddie Mitchells…but that another topic for another day.

The last real debate over who to take was back in 2003 when Michigan State receiver Charles Rogers tricked GM Matt Millen (not, as it turns out, a very difficult feat) into thinking he was getting a clone of Randy Moss with the second overall selection. Is it me or are we seeing some sort of trend here? Disagree if you will, but each player mentioned had every intention of becoming a Pro Bowl-caliber player. However, just one was a Pro Bowler. The rest were far from it.  

Rogers admitted to ESPN’s Jamele Hill that he "blew every day" in terms of his marijuana use as a player. Cheech and Chong’s Up in Smoke certainly summarizes Rogers’ career.  Rogers went to the Scouting Combine and went through the drills and mind games of the NFL’s best. The funny thing is most of the time it’s the player that wins this battle of the minds in those interviews, usually coming across as being legit. Some players are clearly better deceivers than others.

With the Lions selecting Charles Rogers, the Houston Texans were left to draft Andre Johnson. With Johnson, the Texans thought they were putting the pieces to the puzzle together.  David Carr now had a target to throw to in Johnson, perhaps the best offensive player from those storied Miami teams, which is really saying something. Johnson has since established himself as one of the top, if not the top, receivers in the game. It turned out to be David Carr (1st overall in 2002) along with Joey Harrington (3rd overall in 2002) that failed to live up the hype coming out of college.

If you want to argue that Suh and McCoy are locks to great, so be it. Each of the failures mentioned above were expected to be locks as well. Can this be the one time that two super-talented college players each stand out at the next level? One can only hope. Although anyone who is a betting man would say the odds are against them both reaching NFL heights.

Nebraska Coach Bo Pelini said of Suh earlier this season, “I don’t know if there’s a better player in college football” and he very well could have been 100% correct. However, being great in college and transferring that success to the NFL is something only a select few can do. Suh told the media during the Scouting Combine that “I don’t think it’s a rivalry” between him and Gerald McCoy, explaining that “we’re definitely competitive with each other”.

McCoy was sure to point out that he and Suh are friends, but the battle to be number one pushes them both, “It’s a competition” but that there were “no hard feelings” which is great to hear. At least these races aren’t political; we won’t see any smear adds as both players graciously recognize one another’s talents. Perhaps the jokers in Washington should take note—you can reach the top without sinking to the bottom.

Results from drafts of the past had time to simmer in the pot. It will be a few years until we can grade both Suh and McCoy and find out how far they took their fantastic college careers at the next level. For now, the question remains: will they each fire on all cylinders after their names are called this April?

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*The All Access Football ninth annual 2010 NFL Draft Bible Package Is Now Available! Click Here To Learn More…

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