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Atlanta Falcons (11-5): The shining deed of the old one exalted anew...

The Falcons had their playoff hopes dashed by the eventual champs. The reasons were clear and they’ve done all they can to address them.

Offense: How much of a difference will Julio Jones make? Can Michael Turner maintain his heavy workload?

Crystal Ball Says: The Falcons gave up quite a bit to move up and select Jones; some say too much. I’m not one of them. If you think there’s a player who will tip the scales in your favor and make you a legitimate Super Bowl contender, you go out and get him. Jones is going to do exactly that. He possesses what the team needs most: explosiveness. That’s why they lost to Green Bay. The Packers simply had more explosiveness on both sides of the ball. Jones’ game is NFL-ready, as is his attitude. He will complement the outstanding Roddy White to give the improving Matt Ryan two big-time targets as opposed to the lone target White has been. But the Falcons will still run the ball…a lot. Michael Turner had a terrific 2010 but his 334 carries were a lot, especially considering the 377 he had in 2008 and the injury he suffered in 2009. He’s 29, runs to contact and is coming off groin surgery. I’m not saying he’s finished, but he can see the finish line. Jason Snelling isn’t good enough to carry anything more than the lightest of loads, but rookie Jaquizz Rogers is an intriguing fit. Quizz will step into the role vacated by the oft-injured Jerious Norwood, who is now in St. Louis. The similarity between the two doesn’t end with their playing styles; Rogers is slightly build and susceptible to injury as well. They need someone to ease the burden of Turner. Harry Douglas will be the third receiver and if he stays healthy, he’ll be a deep threat. That will loosen up the underneath coverage for Tony Gonzalez, who might be playing his final season. He’s not what he used to be, but he’s crafty enough to create space for himself. The offensive line is solid but unspectacular. They play well within the scheme, another sign of a solid coaching staff: the Falcons create schemes to fit their players, not the other way around like some teams—cough, Washington, cough. Second-year man Garrett Reynolds takes over at right guard, but other than that the line is intact from a successful season ago.

Defense: Can Ray Edwards make a difference? Will youngsters Peria Jerry and Sean Weatherspoon be healthy contributors?

Crystal Ball Says: Edwards comes over from Minnesota and is certainly one of the biggest signings of the off-season. He appears to have fully recovered from knee surgery and will provide Atlanta with a bookend pass rush to complement John Abraham. Edwards is the explosive player Atlanta needed on defense. They also need recent top draft picks Peria Jerry and Sean Weatherspoon to get back on the field. Jerry is healthy and although Corey Peters is slated to start at right defensive tackle, Perry will take over before too long. The 2009 first rounder has the necessary quickness and work ethic to be a key contributor. As for Weatherspoon, his instincts and ability to play different positions will be a welcome addition to this defense. He looked quite effective before injuries KO’ed his season. Curtis Lofton will be the man in the middle. He is the typical Falcon: always hustling, great instincts, and plays for the betterment of the team. In Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes, the Birds have two quick cover corners who play aggressively. Safeties Thomas DeCoud and William Moore like to lay big hits on opponents…sometimes at the expense of actually making plays. However, they’ll mature and learn that not every hit has to be a highlight. It would also help Moore stay healthy if he reined it in and played a bit more disciplined.

Bottom Line: I think this is the best team in the division, and the one with the best balance. They’re motivated to atone for last year’s playoff flop, and I believe they will…at least a little bit.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6): Of the principal ones of the city in rebellion who will strive mightily to recover their liberty?

Tampa Bay is on the rise, folks. People yap about Drew Brees but never talk about the Tampa offense. That will change this season.

Offense: Will Josh Freeman continue his ascent up the quarterback charts? Can LeGarrett Blount produce for 16 games?

Crystal Ball Says: Over 3,400 yards, better than 61% completion percentage, and a 25-6 TD to INT ratio. That’s what Josh Freeman did last season. Oh, he’s 23 and in his third season. We all knew Freeman had the size and athletic ability coming out of Kansas St. What we didn’t realize was that this guy would pick up the game as quickly as he did. That’s a credit to the coaching staff and to Freeman, who dedicated himself to improving after a shaky rookie campaign. He’s got a cannon arm, accuracy, great mobility, and moxie. Those are the 4 things I want from my QB and he’s got ‘em all. Did I mention he’s only 23? He’ll be throwing to Mike Williams, another underappreciated player on this roster. Williams had 965 yards and 11 touchdowns, which isn’t All World, but is extremely impressive for a rookie receiver. It’s very rare that first-year wide outs put up those kinds of numbers, especially when they’re playing without a complementary receiver. Williams and Freeman have an obvious chemistry that will continue to develop this season. Look for each player to improve his numbers, although it’ll be impossible for Freeman to improve his 4.2:1 TD-INT ratio. Think somewhere around 28-10 and 3,700 yards in 2011. When the Bucs take to the ground, they hand the ball to LeGarrette Blount. Talk about a player who came out of nowhere. Disgraced in college, undrafted and then cut from Tennessee as a pro, Blount ran for over 1,000 yards in just 13 games for Tampa Bay. He’s a big, powerful back with shifty moves and a nose for the end zone. However, the Bucs won’t work him too hard, so expect Earnest Graham to take some carries away. That won’t be a bad thing; it’ll help Blount’s development and save his strength for late in the season. The offensive line was decimated by injuries last season, but appears to be in good shape heading into 2011. They’re led by left tackle Donald Penn. Penn made the Pro Bowl last season, but his play was erratic. He protected Freeman well, but committed too many drive-killing penalties.

Defense: Will the high draft picks from 2010 return from injury-plagued seasons? Will this year’s draft picks be bargains or disappointments?

Crystal Ball Says: It all starts up front, on the defensive line. Brian Price and Gerald McCoy started slow and then got injured just when he seemed to have the hang of things. Price had his hamstring detach from his pelvis—yeah, ugly—and went down after a handful of games. They’re healthy now. Price has put on weight, the good kind, which will serve him in run defense and space eating. McCoy, on the other hand, has put on about 10 pounds of muscle in the off-season. He’s going to terrorize the opposition in 2011 and is a main reason I’m high on this defense. The two 2011 picks, Adrain Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers, have questions to answer. Clayborn supposedly doesn’t possess the skills of a big-time pass rusher. Two seasons ago there was talk of Clayborn being a top-5 pick. He fell to number 20 and Tampa was glad to grab him. He has the requisite power to pressure quarterbacks, despite what’s been said. Bowers’ knee issues saw him plummet to the 51st overall pick. If he’s healthy, that’s the steal of the draft by a mile, and he’s participated in nearly every preseason activity Tampa’s had. Thievery. He’ll be eased into the lineup, sharing time with Michael Bennett at left defensive end. Bennett earned that time by playing well last season when McCoy got injured. This is a potentially scary defensive line. The linebackers aren’t so scary, but they’re very happy with rookie Mason Foster’s rapid development. The athletic Foster made former MLB Barrett Ruud expendable and although he’ll begin as a 2-down player, it’s only a matter of time before Foster is playing on every down, flying around making key plays. Geno Hayes and Quincy Black are also quick to the ball and fit well into the Tampa defensive scheme. Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib form a formidable corner duo, but there are concerns with each…albeit very different ones. Barber is 36 and has played at a high level for a long, long time. Is there tread left on the tires? Talib is the young buck, but he can’t seem to avoid trouble. He’s got all the skill in the world, but will he make it through the season without being suspended? It’s a legitimate concern. Starting free safety Tanard Jackson is suspended for at least 2 games, so Cody “Ben” Grimm will fill in…and perhaps steal the job. Grimm played well last season before breaking his leg and if he gets off to a good start, the team won’t want to mess with it. Strong safety Sean Jones is a tough player and provides solid run support.

Bottom Line: If everything breaks right, the Bucs could win the division. If everything goes wrong, health-wise, they could finish a distant third. I’ll split the difference.

New Orleans Saints (9-7): Near, far, the failure of the two great luminaries which will occur...Oh, what a loss!

Always a trendy pick, the Saints’ front seven was exposed by Seattle in last year’s playoffs. I’m not sure if Drew Brees is enough to compensate for the lack of D in the Big Easy.

Offense: Will rookie Mark Ingram provide the offensive balance this team so desperately needs? Can Brees cut down on the 22 INTs he threw in 2010?

Crystal Ball Says: Ingram’s the real deal. He’s tough and durable, which makes up for his lack of elite speed. The Saints need someone reliable at the position, and Ingram is that guy. Darren Sproles will replace Reggie Bush as the change-of-pace guy and for my money, he’ll be an improvement. Brees’ targets at receiver are a bit less dependable. Marques Colston’s balky knees will no doubt rear their ugly heads at some point this season and with the underrated Lance Moore already out for week 1, pressure is going to fall on Robert Meachem. He’s supposedly recovered from off-season ankle surgery—his 3rd surgery in his brief career thus far—and will share targets with Devery Henderson. If Henderson can ever hang on to the ball consistently, he’ll be a deep threat for a long time. But that’s still an “if.” Helping the wide outs will be budding star tight end Jimmy Graham. He’s the next Antonio Gates—an athletic big man who is near-impossible to defend, especially in the red zone. Expect a breakout season from Superstar Graham. Brees isn’t going to throw as many interceptions as he did last year, but his receivers aren’t as reliable as they used to be. Because of that, and the excellent guards they have, expect a lot more rushing attempts in 2011. The guards, Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks, are quick and dominant in the run game. Few, if any, teams have interior linemen of this caliber. Jermon Bushrod is the left tackle, and he’s average. The team wisely re-signed Zach Strief, who is a better player at right tackle than the declining Jon Stinchcomb. Center Olin Kreutz is the weak link along the line, clearly showing all of his 34 years when he left Chicago. I wonder how much heart he has left; he was contemplating retirement earlier this summer. The line can run block well enough on the inside, but can a leopard change his spots? We shall see.

Defense: Was the 41-point embarrassment in Seattle a sign of things to come? Did the Saints inject enough in the offseason?

Crystal Ball Says: I’m willing to chalk that afternoon in Seattle up to “one of those days”…kind of. The front 7 was exposed, especially Will Smith. He’ll have to wait to atone for 2010 as he serves a 2-game suspension for the StarCaps debacle. Jeff Charleston—not rookie Cameron Jordan—will start in his place. It’s a significant drop-off.  The Saints hope that Shaun Rogers will make a difference up front, and he will…if he stays healthy. Rogers is a tremendous talent, but his work ethic has always been an issue. It’s a risk, but one New Orleans sort of had to take. Sedrick Ellis continues to improve and will provide some serious girth and strength on the interior, while Turk McBride will play left end after having a surprisingly solid 2010 season. Jonathan Vilma is a relentless player at middle linebacker, always reading plays correctly and solid in pass coverage. On either side of him will be Will Herring and Scott Shanle. He’s a nice fourth linebacker, but he’s being asked to start. Not a good idea. Shanle is stepping in for Jonathan Casillas, who is coming off lisfranc surgery. Casillas might play in the opener against Green Bay, but the Saints would be wise to take it easy on him. He missed all of last season. In any event, the linebacking talent drops off significantly after the excellent Vilma. In the secondary, corners Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter are an outstanding tandem. However, they each have trouble staying healthy which is a problem when the unproven Patrick Robinson is next in line. Malclom Jenkins was a stud last season and should be one of the league’s better free safeties in the league, but I’m a bit skeptical of strong safety Roman Harper, who was undressed against the Seahawks in the playoffs. How much confidence does he have, and will it be shattered in week one when he gets burned by the Packers? Depth in the secondary is an issue, as is depth at linebacker.

Bottom Line: Ingram is a nice pickup, but he won’t be enough to off-set the offensive line issues and banged up receiving corps. Don’t misunderstand: I’m not saying the offense is going to stink, rather that it won’t be outstanding, and that’s what’s needed with a very thin and vulnerable defense.

Carolina Panthers (5-11): There will soon be talk of a treacherous man, who rules a short time, quickly raised from low to high estate.

Welcome to the NFL Mr. Newton. John Fox is out and Ron Rivera in as head coach, but will he succeed in his long awaited first top job?

Offense: Can Newton justify his draft status? Will the offense be run, run, and run?

Crystal Ball Says: Well, at least Newton enters the situation with a decent offensive line and a powerful running game to ease his inevitable growing pains. Newton can only improve what was the league’s worst offense in 2010. I mean, they were unwatchable with Jimmy Clausen under center. Newton will at least bring some excitement to the table. He’ll be handing off a lot, too, as the team resigned DeAngelo Williams to a new (and ridiculous) contract. Williams has suffered some injuries of late, but when healthy he’s elusive and has great vision. Jonathan Stewart is the 1-A, and runs like a runway freight train. The problem is, he’s not actually a locomotive and gets hit far too often and far too hard. He’ll be banged up and miss some time for sure. The team does have Mike Goodson, a pretty solid third back. The offensive line is the team’s strength. Tackle and team leader Jordan Gross had a slow start to 2010, but that can be attributed to his recovery from a broken leg in 2009. He’s a Pro Bowler and has no health issues this season. Right tackle Jeff Otah was injured in 2010 and missed the entire season. His return will help Newton and the running game tremendously. Also returning from a wasted 2010 is left guard Travelle Wharton, whom Coach Rivera thinks very highly of. Right guard will be manned by Mackenzy Bernadeau, who played quite well filling toward the end of last season. The receivers, who will be invisible at times, are led by Steve Smith. His numbers have fallen off dramatically, but that’s 100% due to quarterback play. Smith is undersized, but doesn’t play like it. He’s as fearless and intense as they come, at any position. A player any coach would love to have. The trouble is, there’s no one to take attention away from him on the rare occasions when Newton drops back to pass. Brandon LaFell, Legedu Naanee, and Seyi Ajirotut are at best third receivers, and that’s being generous. However, one of them (likely LaFell) is going to be a starter opposite Smith. No way. Keep the ball on the ground.

Defense: Can Rivera and defensive coordinator Sean McDermott bring their defensive magic to Carolina? Is there any way Charles Johnson can live up to his contract?

Crystal Ball Says: Eventually, perhaps the defensive coaches can make this an intimidating bunch, but for now they have a few holes to fill. They hope they’ve plugged two with a pair of third round rookies, Terrell McClain and Sione Fua. They’ll start on the interior of the defensive line, which is a bit scary. They’ll take their lumps and learn from experience. They’ll also learn from the example set by Charles Johnson. Yeah, his contract was out of control, but Johnson is a pass-rushing demon and a hard worker to boot. He’s the kind of guy who inspires those around him, and that’s what you want with a couple of rookies on board. Greg Hardy, who impressed at times as a rookie last season, will play the left end spot. He’s lucky to be playing at all after suffering injuries in a motorcycle crash a few months ago. Linebacker Jon Beason is a terror at middle linebacker; if he played in New York or Chicago, he’d be a household name. However, he’ll have a slow start to the season after undergoing surgery and having 3 screws inserted into his heel. Carolina should hold him out until he’s fully, ahem, healed. Why rush a stud when you’re not fighting for the playoffs? Run-stuffing specialist Dan Connor should step in for Beason. On the outside are Thomas Davis and James Anderson. Davis looked like a next big thing candidate in 2009, until knee injuries sidelined him. He’ll be back with a vengeance this season. Anderson had a terrific 2010 and will look to build off it. Beason’s presence will only help the two outside ‘backers. Cornerback Chris Gamble is likely the Panther happiest with the coaching change. He was in the doghouse for most of last season. The regime change might lift his spirits, but it won’t lift his play. He played terribly in the pre-season, but the team has no other options. Captain Munnerlyn may have a great name, but he’s not a starting corner. There’s a LOT of trouble here. Safeties Charles Godfrey and Sherrod Martin are average at best, and I saw Godfrey get burned way too often last season on deep passes. Teams are going to light this team up when they pass, which will be often.

Bottom Line: This team isn’t THAT bad. They’re in a tough division, but they’re plugging the right holes. They must, however, be right about Newton. If not, it’ll be five years down the drain.