The Leading Authority of the NFL Draft

Since June my brain has focused on the running backs taken in round one over the past nine years.

What have those backs done in the NFL? In the June report, Hard To Thrive Inside The Top 5, we concentrated on backs drafted inside the top five overall picks.

Now we shift to the running backs selected from picks five through nine in the annual NFL Draft since the year 2000. The difference in success between these two groups is truly remarkable, and not what you might think.

Five backs were taken during picks five through nine: Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, LaDainian Tomlinson, Cadillac Williams and Adrian Peterson. The list below displays their stats from their entry into the NFL.

The above-mentioned names were selected lower, but have out-produced the guys picked from selections one through four. Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden haven’t yet lived up to their lofty draft status…

It’s simply staggering to see the numbers in comparison. The careers of those picked in Group 2 have also proved to be very successful and the early success of their rookie seasons could be a key indicator of things to come in the future of the Group 1 backs.

Group 1 has combined for only one 1,000-yard season in the 12 NFL seasons they’ve played in. Group 2 has accumulated 22 1,000-yard seasons in their 40 combined seasons. The production of the two groups is so mismatched one would assume the order where they were drafted was reversed. After production, the most important statistic is durability and once again Group 1 fails to live up to its lofty draft expectations.

Jamal Lewis missed his entire second season after tearing his ACL in summer camp and 16 of the total 22 missed games by Lewis came in that season. Over the rest of his eight-year career, Lewis missed only six games and if you take that season off the record, Group 2’s durability numbers would be even more impressive.

Clearly Group 2 exceeds the numbers of Group 1. The NFL Draft is the day where the measurable is sometimes valued more than the production on the field. Often referred to as a game of inches, what goes on in Indianapolis in February is another game of inches and seconds. Anyone who has watched the Combine knows that posting a huge 40 time helps the player by leaps and bounds when it comes to draft day.

Taking what we know to the bank Group 1 created separation from Group 2. The noteworthy thing here is the slight edge in height and times for the backs that were selected in Group 1. The emphasis on the measurable isn’t only seen on the field; the game of inches contributes greatly toward who is getting drafted and where they’re getting drafted. Watching the NFL Combine it’s clear that the difference between a 4.44 forty time and one of 4.51 is a big one. However, sometimes results from Indianapolis in February can overshadow a player’s overall college career.

Group 3 is on the horizon and will include those running backs drafted with picks 10 through 14 since 2000. When we throw in Group 3 names like Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, and Chris Wells, it should very interesting.