The Leading Authority of the NFL Draft

Maybe it’s fantasy owners, LSU fans, or maybe Donnie Brown kissed their girlfriend, but I’m growing increasingly tired of hearing people ignore the fact that Joseph Addai simply isn’t the answer in Indianapolis.

That’s what led Colts’ GM Bill Polian to draft the Connecticut back in the first place. I’m sure the rookie’s Super Bowl run added to the love Addai has enjoyed as he stepped in for longtime Colt Edgerrin James after his free agent departure to Arizona. I was on the bandwagon at the time. Here is this rookie back busting off almost five yards per carry (4.8 to be exact) while going over the 1,000 yard mark! It made me think Polian nailed yet another gem of a pick.

But the thing that I’ve taken the most notice of is the recent lack production by the fourth-year running back. Over the last two seasons Addai has reached the 100-yard mark only twice. It’s a sad day when the Nathan’s Hot Dog eating champions eat more hot dogs than Joseph Addai rushes for yards. These are the rushing yardage totals over the last 12 games Addai was healthy enough to play in: 44, 20, 78, 71, 3, 32, 34, 105, 70, 57, 26, and 4—not exactly Walter Payton type results. Taking away the three best games of Addai’s 2008 season, then using the best of the rest, take a look at how he compares to Nathan’s hot dog eating champions of the past six years. 

Another trait which doesn’t bode well for Addai when looking at the numbers is that he gets worse as the game goes on. The chart below shows his yards per carry. His production dropped as his work load increased in 2007, but that trend changed in 2008 where his yards per carry actually increased once he started finding his groove behind the Colts’ offensive line. Keep in mind that the Houston Texans finished 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed so that 105-yard breakout game by Addai wasn’t against the most solid of defenses.

The thing that deceives here is seeing Addai’s name in the box score with those touchdowns. In reality Addai isn’t punishing tacklers or running the ball to the goal line himself; it’s Manning and company getting the ball down to the red zone, where Addai benefits the most.

Money and time are too precious in the NFL and taking a running back in the first round sends a message loud and clear—Addai’s days are numbered as Indianapolis’ starting running back. Donald Brown is already taking advantage of Addai being injured and unable to play thus far in August. Colts fans and Joseph Addai fantasy owners, it’s time to accept that Addai will not be the starting running back by season’s end. After multiple knee injuries in college, Addai hasn’t been able to shake the nagging injuries in the NFL. Looking attentively at the situation, when asked who would receive the bulk of the carries, new head coach Jim Caldwell said, “It depends, week to week, it depends on who you’re facing”. Caldwell isn’t going to come out and say the job is Brown’s—the rookie has to earn it on the field. He’ll certainly get his chance.

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