The Leading Authority of the NFL Draft

Adrian Peterson fell to the 7th pick of the 2007 draft as questions concerning his health clouded the NFL decision makers. Some of those same people now see Peterson as the best back in the game today, one who might have the potential to end up as one of the best the game has seen.

While Peterson was punishing NFL talent like Mike Tyson at a Boy Scout charity boxing event, another player with a terrific skill set was in Alabama running roughshod over his opponents. That player was Darren McFadden and since the NFL is the copycat league it is, once the scouts and coaches saw the breathtaking plays being made by Adrian Peterson, they couldn’t help but fall in love with McFadden. During his three seasons at Arkansas, McFadden was spectacular in all aspects of the game, even throwing touchdown passes.

With those numbers how could anyone resist the next coming of Adrian Peterson? While Peterson was selected outside the top five in the NFL Draft, McFadden heard his name called fourth overall. When doing projects like these, there is always one question that arises—how far does one go back statistically? Is five years enough? Should we go back 10 or maybe 20 years? Sometimes the numbers that are revealed give you your timeline. So I went back to the year 2000, and discovered that since that time, only four backs have been selected in the top-four in the NFL Draft.

Two of those four came in 2005 when Ronnie Brown went second and Cedric Benson went fourth overall. One year later, Reggie Bush was the shockingly went at number two when most considered him a lock for the number one overall spot. This brings us to the 4th pick in 2008, Oakland’s Darren McFadden. Looking at the measurables and the way AD took the league by storm, it was a no-brainer that this copycat league was going to go cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs over McFadden. So while the Oakland Raiders and most NFL braintrusts were thinking of Peterson-level results when it came to McFadden, perhaps they should have looked a little deeper at what happens with backs drafted inside the top five overall.

The production of those four players hasn’t exactly blown anyone away. The four have also shown that staying healthy is always going to be a huge question mark. With the 12 combined seasons of play between all four players they have missed 40 games due to injury. Some might think that this would lead to the conclusion that McFadden is going to disappoint…but this is not the case. I’m merely trying to look back to where we can get a better idea of what to expect in the seasons to come, and history gives us that chance. Only one, 1,000-yard plateau has been achieved by Ronnie Brown, and that was his 1,008 total back in 2006. Without question Brown, Bush, and McFadden have all shown the skill set to be double threat options due to their great hands. But is that enough?

McFadden showed flashes during his rookie season, and some believe he would have done more had Oakland coach Tom Cable used him as much as he should have. There will be some challenges for McFadden in 2009. Michael Bush was no slouch before his knee injury, and he’s looking like he’s regained the form that made him a top talent in college. Maybe, just maybe, this might be high octane running back combination. For McFadden to live up to his number-four-overall talent, he’ll need his health, Michael Bush to be sent packing in a trade, and for Tom Cable to focus the offense around him. If these things don’t happen, we can see from the numbers below that 600 yards rushing and 500 yards receiving is to be expected. That’s not bad…but it’s not worthy of a 4th overall pick.